Maths = Lies

I've never been awesome at Maths. I couldn't tell you how to work out the square root of anything, or what a fractal is. Hell, I couldn't even tell you the names of any of my five maths teachers in High School.

The one aspect of Maths that I was okay at, however, was Probability. You know, the concept that calculates the chances of something happening or not happening - the theory that underpins statements like "the chances of the All Blacks winning their next game is one in five" - or "Sarah Palin has a one-in-eighty-six-thousand-trillion shot of NOT being pronounced legally retarded by the next Election".

I took all this for granted back in High School. But looking back on it, if you add a little rationale and logic to the probability equation, you can come to the conclusion that this probability stuff doesn't quite work...

Let me explain. Lets say you are sitting in a coffee shop, having a latte with a friend. According to the probabilitist's argument, the chances of that friend putting a sachet of sugar into their drink or not will be a one-in-whatever-number-they-calculate chance. This ratio will invariably be higher or lower than the chances of the same event (putting sugar into coffee) occurring with another friend.

If you think about this rationally... Its crap.

If your friend wants to have sugar, they will. If they don't (or are diabetic) they wont. When it comes right down to it, there is only ever a 50-50 chance of ANYTHING happening.

Your friend may fart loudly whilst taking a bite of their muffin. Or they may not.

The barrista may have a sudden heart attack whilst sprinkling cinnamon onto a hot chocolate. Or they may not.

Your dog may sprout wings and run for President. Or it may not.

There are an infinite number of things that MAY happen, but logically, there is no way to chart the likelihood of ANY of them happening. They either will, or they wont.

Even if you use statistical data to make a probability-based prediction - such as tracking the results of a racehorse to work out the odds of winning it's next race - the horse still only has a one-in-two shot of coming across the finish line first - it either will or it wont.

So there you have it - your maths teacher lied to you.

Next week: the Algebra conspiracy...